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<\/p>\nAt first, all eyes were on Hurricane Harvey. Then attention turned \u2013 momentarily \u2013 to the wildfires raging out West before riveting on Hurricane Irma.<\/p>\n
Cascading natural disasters in a warming world raise the specter of mass dislocation. Sea-level rise, drought, wildfires and floods could displace hundreds of millions of people. Following Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans lost about 90,000 residents, a third of whom settled in Houston \u2013 where Harvey affected roughly 100,000 homes.<\/p>\n
\u201cClimate change could lead to a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions,\u201d Brig. Gen. Stephen Cheney, CEO of the American Security Project, observed last year. \u201cWe\u2019re already seeing migration of large numbers of people around the world because of food scarcity, water insecurity and extreme weather, and this is set to become the new normal.\u201d<\/p>\n
People will move across borders and within nations in search of habitable settings. Low-lying coastal communities in the United States face the prospect of \u201cmanaged retreat\u201d \u2013 the deliberate demolition of vulnerable properties following buyouts or abandonment. To date, few people have opted to voluntarily relocate \u2013 preferring the familiarity of their home surroundings, despite increased threats.<\/p>\n
But that dynamic could change as devastating storms proliferate, policy-makers overhaul the flood insurance program, and sea-level rise extends beyond \u201cnuisance flooding.\u201d A recent study published in Nature Climate Change predicts significant population losses by 2100 in Florida, Louisiana, New Jersey and Virginia.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt\u2019s hard to predict where people will go,\u201d notes Aaron Strong, a professor of coastal and marine policy at the University of Maine. Human behavior \u201cis one of the hardest things to model in terms of climate change impacts.\u201d<\/p>\n
Greater variability and weather extremes will occur everywhere, and no setting will offer a safe haven from climate disturbances<\/a>. But Maine\u2019s federally designated disasters tend to be less intense and costly relative to many other states, notes Evan Richert, former director of the State Planning Office, based on his review of federal emergency management data; those differentials could potentially lure to Maine businesses that seek \u201cless disruption and less cost.\u201dClimate projections indicate that Maine will remain relatively wet, despite periodic droughts. Having the attributes of abundant land and water could make the state a magnet for those escaping hotter, drier or storm-torn settings.<\/p>\n \u201cThe population of Maine will increase dramatically in the next 20 years,\u201d predicts Paul Mayewski, director of the University of Maine\u2019s Climate Change Institute. \u201cI truly believe that.\u201d<\/p>\n Might climate migrants drive a new wave of growth in Maine, which in recent decades has seen population remain nearly stagnant? What impacts would such an influx have on infrastructure, land use, traffic and the power grid? Where might the newcomers work?<\/p>\n Few people appear to be asking these questions, much less answering them.<\/p>\n Gov. LePage feels little need for forward-looking research (having abolished the State Planning Office in 2012), and the Muskie School of Public Service \u2013 which might have tackled these questions \u2013 lost many key faculty members in 2014 because of budget cuts.<\/p>\n So climate adaptation planning happens largely now at the municipal level. There, it is \u201cstill really focused on the physical end \u2013 culverts, waterfront redesign and flood management,\u201d notes Cynthia Isenhour, a professor of anthropology at the University of Maine.That technocratic approach, she cautions, can exclude people who need to be part of the conversation. \u201cWhat I worry about is the human dimension. How can we adapt in ways that don\u2019t favor those already best able to adapt?\u201d<\/p>\n